Weekly report

The week in the market

28 September – 4 October 2026

A closed week, issued the morning it closed and never rewritten. Weeks run Monday to Sunday, from midnight UTC, 8am in Perth.

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Snapshot · 4 Oct 2026

cars left the market, $442.1M in final asks; at least 5,906 with the seller’s proof: 11,499
price cuts, once per car per day, against 4,340 rises; median cut $1,000: 21,841
median used ask at the close, over 99,407 cars; unchanged: $27,990
cars watched at the close: 158,255

In brief

1Exits ran up 7.1% (+497) on the 7 days before: 7,498 cars on the daily series against 7,001; at least 5,906 of the week's 11,499 carry the seller's own proof of sale.
2Dealers cut 15,265 cars' prices against 3,279 rises: 1.38 cuts a day per 100 cars live, up 4.8% on the 7 days before; the median cut was $1,000.
3The median used asking price closed at $27,990 over 99,407 cars, unchanged on the 7 days before, bases mixed as advertised.
4ACT's median used ask moved most, down 3.8% to $23,990 over 1,855 cars; QLD, WA, NT, TAS held within half a percent.
5Ford Ranger led the market out with 1,450 proved exits, up 6.4% (+87); Mazda CX-5 rose fastest among the twelve, up 9.8% (+40).
6Electric cars' median used ask closed at $42,990 over 3,882 cars, unchanged; their proved exits up 1.1% (+4).

Computed from the figures below, each with its count; nothing is a forecast.

7,498 cars left the market in the latest window of the last eight weeks

Cars that left the market, one per vehicle, summed over each window's recorded days, the last eight weeks · cars · n = 60,130 · as at 4 Oct 2026, 08:50 pm AWST · a hollow bar is a window not fully recorded and a tick is a window before the series began; never filled in

Source: the daily roll-up, by window.

15,265 cars cut in the latest window of the last eight weeks

Cars repriced down, once per car per day, summed over each window's recorded days, the last eight weeks · cars · n = 136,412 · as at 4 Oct 2026, 08:50 pm AWST · same marks as the exits chart

Source: the daily roll-up, by window.

Against the 7 days before: exits up 7.1%, proved exits up 6.4%, cuts up 5.6%, rises up 99.2%; cars live at close up 0.8%; the median used ask unchanged; median days to sell down 6.3%.

Exits ran up 7.1% against the 7 days before

Running total of cars that left the market, day by day, this period in ink and the 7 days before in grey on the same days · cars · n = 7,498 · as at 4 Oct 2026, 08:50 pm AWST · a line stops where a day was not recorded

Source: the daily roll-up, this window and the one before.

ACT's median used ask moved most, down 3.8% to $23,990

Median used asking price by state, the 7 days before against this period, states with 1,000 or more priced cars both sides · dollars · n = 8 · as at 4 Oct 2026, 08:50 pm AWST · asking prices as advertised, bases mixed, one price per car; a state's median can move because the yards it watches changed, not only because sellers repriced

Source: the daily state roll-up, each window's last recorded day.

How long the period’s sales had been advertised

6,193 used and demo cars proved sold in the period, of which 4,890 publish the seller’s own listing date and are what this is measured over; the median is 30 days. Unproved exits are excluded: a page that went quiet is not a sale, and a days-to-sell figure built from both would be measuring two different things.

Cars that left the market · top models

Ford Ranger654
Ford Everest259
Mazda CX-5256
Toyota RAV4256
Toyota Hilux241

11,499 in all. one count per physical car in the week of its final exit, no listing of it still live; value is each car's final ask, once

Most repriced · cuts in the period

Ford Rangermedian $1,000849 cuts
Ford Everestmedian $1,000479 cuts
Mitsubishi Outlandermedian $1,000475 cuts
Toyota Hiluxmedian $999474 cuts
Toyota RAV4median $899438 cuts

one count per car per day, however many syndicated copies repeat it; grows as coverage finds more cars

The detail

Against the period before

Against the 7 days before, 21 Sept to 27 Sept: 7 of 7 days recorded in each window. Flows are summed over recorded days, levels read on the last; a comparison the windows cannot bear is left blank with its reason.

This period against the 7 days before, 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-27: cars that left the market, of them proved, cars cut, cars with a rise, cars live at close and the median used ask at close, with the change and, where the windows recorded different numbers of days, the figures per recorded day.
Measure	This period	the 7 days before	Change	Per recorded day
Cars that left the market · cars, one per vehicle	7,498	7,001	up 7.1% (+497)	—
Of them, proved by the seller's page · cars	5,906	5,552	up 6.4% (+354)	—
Cars with a price cut · cars, once per car per day	15,265	14,460	up 5.6% (+805)	—
Cars with a price rise · cars, once per car per day	3,279	1,646	up 99.2% (+1,633)	—
Cars live at close · cars on the last recorded day	158,255	157,067	up 0.8% (+1,188)	—
Median used asking price at close · one price per car, bases mixed	$27,990	$27,990	unchanged	—
Median days advertised at exit · proved exits with a published age, 4,890 and 4,676 cars	30d	32d	down 6.3% (−2d)	—

Day by day7 days

Cars and advertisements separately wherever both exist; they differ by about half again. Every day due in this period recorded.

One row per recorded day from 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-04, 7 days recorded: listings and cars live, exits in advertisements and in cars with the proved share, their value in dollars at final asking prices, and cuts and rises as events and as cars. Days that recorded nothing are absent, never interpolated.
Day	Live listings	Live cars	Cars proved sold	All exits	Cars cut	Cars up
2026-09-28	232,653	156,453	814	1,092	1,763	298
2026-09-29	233,071	156,964	901	1,156	1,848	201
2026-09-30	233,979	157,592	982	1,055	2,025	415
2026-10-01	236,557	158,883	878	1,112	3,494	1,090
2026-10-02	238,503	160,129	939	1,220	2,770	583
2026-10-03	237,434	159,652	1,044	1,308	2,508	556
2026-10-04	235,519	158,255	348	555	857	136

Cars proved sold: cars whose exit the seller's own page proved: its SOLD text, or a 404/410. All exits: cars that left, recounted on 2026-09-03 against the live listings of that day, the wider figure and the one to read with care: it was recounted after the period closed, so a car that has since been re-advertised has left it. Cars cut: cars repriced down, one per car per day. A dash is a day recorded before these columns existed, not a zero.

By state9 states

Levels are the last recorded day; flows are the period’s total. A state gaining watched cars may just be gaining yards.

By state, 9 states, 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-04: cars watched and their median ask in dollars as advertised on the last recorded day, then cars proved sold and cars cut over the whole period. Levels and flows are different quantities.
State	Cars at close	Median ask	over	Cars proved sold	Cars cut
NSW	39,081	$26,490	24,805	1,229	4,601
VIC	33,750	$29,490	19,901	1,405	4,836
QLD	33,129	$29,790	17,633	1,354	4,704
WA	22,851	$30,950	16,997	769	3,731
UNKNOWN	13,942	$20,999	8,578	511	1,451
SA	9,359	$27,560	6,490	386	1,700
TAS	4,880	$28,990	3,124	199	634
ACT	2,079	$23,990	1,855	43	307
NT	1,675	$33,980	1,083	10	218

“over” is the cars whose price the median was taken across, which is fewer than the cars standing. The proved column sums to the same total as the day-by-day table, because both are written in one pass under one rule. The cut column does not: cars repriced down IN THAT STATE. A car advertised in two states is in both, so this column does not sum to the market total.

What left, by model12 models

The twelve models with most proved exits; stock and its median used ask on the last recorded day, cuts and rises once per car per day.

The twelve models with most proved exits over 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-04, counted in cars: proved exits, listings live and median used ask in dollars as advertised on the last recorded day, median days advertised, and cuts and rises over the period.
Model	Proved exits	Live at close	Median used ask	Median days adv.	Cuts	Rises
Ford Ranger	1,450	9,218	$41,990	48d	1,483	170
Toyota RAV4	611	3,837	$39,888	30d	808	63
Ford Everest	577	4,514	$52,888	58d	965	143
Toyota Hilux	542	4,198	$44,990	31d	855	32
Hyundai Tucson	468	4,983	$29,990	56d	703	168
Mitsubishi Outlander	456	4,850	$29,880	64d	705	145
Mazda CX-5	447	3,740	$26,950	44d	438	50
Nissan X-trail	447	5,395	$27,997	80d	603	172
Hyundai Kona	436	4,017	$29,888	52d	534	262
Mitsubishi Triton	431	3,841	$29,990	58d	447	175
Hyundai i30	426	3,091	$22,888	35d	378	160
GWM Haval Jolion	412	3,286	$23,770	35d	274	49

Days to sell, by state and segment4,388 cars

Days to sell by state and segment, 28 Sept to 4 Oct

Median days advertised at exit, used and proved only, by state and body segment · cars · n = 4,388 · as at 5 Oct 2026, 07:33 am AWST · a cell under the floor of 30 cars prints its count instead of a median. Each cell is the median days advertised at exit with the number of cars beneath it. [u] marks a cell under the floor of 30 cars, shown with its count and no figure (31 such cells here). In each row the highest and lowest figures are in bold; nothing is coloured, because a colour would say more than the sample does.

Median days advertised at exit, used and proved only, by state and body segment · cars · n = 4,388 · as at 5 Oct 2026, 07:33 am AWST · a cell under the floor of 30 cars prints its count instead of a median. Each cell is the median days advertised at exit with the number of cars beneath it. [u] marks a cell under the floor of 30 cars, shown with its count and no figure (31 such cells here). In each row the highest and lowest figures are in bold; nothing is coloured, because a colour would say more than the sample does.
State	SUV	Ute	Wagon	Hatch	Sedan	Van	Coupe	People mover	Convertible	Bus
QLD	27d413	22d223	21d213	23d164	11d83	[u]19	[u]11	—	[u]2	[u]1
VIC	33d410	29d178	20d184	23d141	20d76	[u]27	[u]17	[u]2	[u]3	—
NSW	23d327	18d161	19d172	16d127	15d59	[u]18	[u]11	[u]3	—	[u]1
WA	36d302	48d177	36d165	31d108	37d83	[u]13	[u]15	—	—	—
SA	37d111	27d36	24d43	[u]26	[u]25	[u]5	[u]3	—	—	—
TAS	27d78	46d48	33d40	[u]25	[u]13	[u]3	[u]3	—	—	—
NT	[u]1	[u]4	[u]1	[u]1	—	[u]1	[u]1	—	—	—

Source: the period's proved exits.

Electric share by state8 states

Electric cars as a share of cars with a stated powertrain, on the first and last recorded day of the period; states with 200 or more stated cars.

Electric share of stated-powertrain cars by state, 8 states, on 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-04: stated cars and electric cars at close, the share at start and at close, and the change in points.
State	Stated cars at close	Electric at close	Share at start	Share at close	Change
NSW	37,517	2,723	7.0%	7.3%	+0.3 pts
VIC	32,779	2,749	8.6%	8.4%	-0.2 pts
QLD	32,047	2,493	7.7%	7.8%	+0.0 pts
WA	21,956	1,162	5.3%	5.3%	+0.0 pts
SA	9,179	657	7.2%	7.2%	-0.0 pts
TAS	4,583	372	8.1%	8.1%	+0.1 pts
ACT	1,918	155	8.3%	8.1%	-0.2 pts
NT	1,558	135	8.4%	8.7%	+0.2 pts

What the prices in this report are

As at 2026-10-04, 98,904 live prices were quoted drive-away, 47,435 excluding government charges, and 92,164 did not say. Every median above is a median across that mix.

The corpus behind these figures

Spotlot monitored 232,653 listings on 2026-09-28 and 235,519 on 2026-10-04 (158,255 physical cars after syndication). listings monitored by Spotlot, which grows with coverage; not a count of the Australian market.

What this report withholds, and why

new to market: first seen during a coverage ramp is discovery, not listing; withheld until coverage stabilises
median ask movement: a median over a sample whose size moves with coverage measures composition; withheld until a week's n holds still

This report as a PDF: issued once on first request and archived as issued. Every later download is the same bytes, and the response carries their sha-256 so a kept copy can be checked.

The report in one paragraph, every figure as above. Copy it wherever the conversation is.

Spotlot, week of 28 September – 4 October 2026: Exits ran up 7.1% (+497) on the 7 days before: 7,498 cars on the daily series against 7,001; at least 5,906 of the week's 11,499 carry the seller's own proof of sale. 21,841 price cuts against 4,340 rises (median cut $1,000), counted once per car per day. Most repriced: Ford Ranger, 849 cuts. 235,519 listings monitored at close. Observed, never modelled. spotlot.io/reports/w-2026-09-28